We understand that financial planning isn’t always top of mind – but it is for us! Each month we publish a commentary to update you on the latest financial trends and changes.
Marshall Wealth IQ is aimed at sharing insightful financial market and economic data in easy to visualize charts with brief analyses. This commentary isn’t designed as a call to investment action, but rather as a dependable source to help you feel better informed about current events in today’s market and the underlying trends impacting current wealth.
As the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, there has been renewed concern about recession risk. This Wealth IQ explores what constitutes a recession, discusses who decides if a recession has occurred, examines the current business cycle, and sheds some light on whether the prospect of recession is more concerning than a recession itself for financial markets.
Let’s get started:
1) The first half of 2022 has been everything the prior 18 months were not. Speculators who had been rewarded with intoxicating returns felt heavy and sudden losses as the easy money and low rates that drove the post-COVID market quickly vanished. Now, with markets down, inflation continuing to hit new highs, and consumer confidence sinking, many are ringing recession alarm bells. Looking at our business cycle checklist, while we don’t meet the marks of a full-blown recession just yet, there are signs economic activity is slowing, with the risk of eventually hitting recession territory. Although this term is thrown around in an apocalyptic way in financial media, its true definition and purpose in the business cycle is much more nuanced and is far from a harbinger for the end of the economic world.
It’s impossible for anyone to know with certainty what will happen today, tomorrow, or even a minute from now. Investment involves risk and volatility; it’s why long-term investors have historically been rewarded with excess returns relative to cash. Our investment department monitors market data and works with our wealth advisory teams to right-size portfolios should something change relative to long-term trends. In the meantime, we’ll continue to share financial and economic data we believe is insightful and relevant to your wealth to help you feel informed.
Thank you for reading; please be well and stay healthy.
Disclosure:
Marshall Financial Group, Inc (“Marshall Financial”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in Doylestown, Pennsylvania. This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Marshall Financial Group’s investment advisory services. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. References to market indices are included for informational purposes only as it is not possible to directly invest in an index. The historical performance results of an index do not reflect the deduction of transaction, custodial, and management fees, which would decrease performance results. It should not be assumed that your account performance or the volatility of any securities held in your account will correspond directly to any comparative benchmark index.
This newsletter contains certain forward‐looking statements (which may be signaled by words such as “believe,” “expect” or “anticipate”) which indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially from the expectations portrayed in such forward‐looking statements. As such, there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this letter will come to pass. Additionally, this newsletter contains information derived from third party sources. Although we believe these sources to be reliable, we make no representations as to the accuracy of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party incorporated herein, and take no responsibility, therefore.
For additional information about Marshall Financial, please request our disclosure brochure as set forth on Form ADV using the contact information set forth herein, or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). Please read the disclosure statement carefully.